Slides/Notes from Energy Scenarios presentation at Dreamstake Meetup

The presentation http://www.vividlogic.ie/uploads/Dreamstake_Feb09_ESUK.pdf

And the Scenarios Summary Sheet http://www.vividlogic.ie/uploads/ESUK_Summary_sheet.pdf

Any questions, do email me at phoebebright@vividlogic.ie.

The Case for Wind as a safe Investment

I am not alone in believing the current safest investment would be in wind energy. The wind will keep blowing and people will keep needing electricity, although the amount will depend on the overall state of the economy amongst other things.

And, in Ireland, wind energy will always have a market because of the way the Irish market works. Since all generators must sell their electricity into a pool from which suppliers buy the electricity to sell to their customers. Wind energy will always be a price taker because it is always better to sell, regardless of how low the price. For a gas powered station, the cost of the gas gives a bottom to the price at which it is worth selling. (The calculation is actually more complex because of the cost of shutting down and restarting plant.) So your wind power will be sold ahead of other non-renewables.

Ireland desperately needs wind energy. We import nearly 90% of our energy and will be vulnerable to chaotic price changes in oil, which sets the price for gas, until we change that. There are many new renewable technologies coming on stream that may be appropriate for Ireland, but none that have over 20 years of experience of use. So wind it is in the short term, and we have plenty of wind. Ireland has set the target of 40% of electricity production from wind by 2020. If this target is to be reached that would mean building one 1MW wind turbine every day! See article in Greenmonk for the numbers.

So how might you wrap this product to make a good investment? I suggest a government backed bond with tax free returns for the first 10 years. In return no returns would be paid until the end of year 2 to allow time for construction and connection to the grid (see comment later as this is currently 5+ years). The product would be managed by a bank or financial services company who would operate the scheme on a 1% commission basis. This should not be problematical as there would be low management costs unlike other financial products.

Returns will depend on electricity prices, which in turn are a function of demand and oil price, both of which are currently uncertain. SEI projected returns before tax of 5.5% here.

So what are the risks? The main risk is that the grid will not be updated quickly enough to take an increase in wind, that demand response will not be implemented quickly ensuring that wind farms are not curtailed (turned off) when supply exceeds demand, and that longer term, high bandwidth interconnectors to europe are not built to ensure best price of electricity generated. This is why government support for this investment product to ensure that infrastructure was implemented in a timely fashion.


More about wind energy and the need for demand response here: http://pbjots.blogspot.com/2008/08/no-demand-repsonse-no-progress.html

Energy Payback Period

Suppose a developer looked at this row of poor constructed and poorly maintained buildings and had an idea.

I'm going to make this offer to all the property owners. I will knock this whole block and rebuild using a highly efficient pre-fab system so you can be back in your homes/shops in 2 months. I will put solar panels on the roof and a gas fired CHP plant for the whole block.

You get, at no cost other than some inconvenience, a new building that has low running costs.
I will rebuild back to a higher level and will get the additional space to rent or sell. I will also maintain and run the CHP plant and supply you with heat and electricity and take the profits from that.

So assuming you could work your way through peoples reluctance for change and the planning laws, and assuming this was a profitable deal for the developer. How long would the payback be in terms of energy and how long would it be in terms of carbon emissions (this would be sooner because the proportion of renewables would be increased)?

A lot would depend on constructions methods and how inefficient the buildings currently are. There are many options when you are building new buildings, to reduce fossil-fuel use and energy use overall. Retrofit is much much harder. Maybe we starting again in many cases. Develop a whole new 21st century style that retains some of the characteristics of earlier times, but is not trying to mimic any period of the past.

Anyone any thoughts?

The Oil Crunch

Attended the launch of The Oil Crunch, a report looking at what will happen if we fail to address the systemic problems we have with energy, and oil in particular, in the same way we ignored systemic problems in the finacial sector. For me this is the most comprehensive, clear and well written assessment of the energy situation yet produced including contributions from both Shell and Zero Carbon Britain as possible scenarios. The basic message is that the UK has a 3-5 year window to engineer a soft landing and their hope is that this report will put the arguments into context and stimulate a knowledgeable debate.

The four scenarios considered are:
Growth - becoming less plausible by the day
Plateau - Shell - growth in supply to 1015 and plateau into the 2020s
Descent - Zero Carbon Britain
Collapse - here be dragons
The taskforce favour Descent, although this is conservative compared the the current IEA forcasts leaked today in the FT which project a 6.4-9.1% pa!


A good question was asked about why businesses would not want to sell more, particularly utilities. Ian Merchant from Scottish and Southern Energy, jumped on this one saying it was not good business practice to sell people what they did not need. Much better to sell less and build up a larger loyal clientbase. Great answer! It seems as the mighty are falling, what was previously unsayable (if you valued your job or reputation) can now be said. Will Whitehorn from Virgin said that business growth for the sake of growth was not good either, although there would be opportunities for growth in a descent scenario.

Some other points that came out of the Q&A:
- the need for a policy around heat as well as energy
- the urgent need for a feed-in tariff (and this seems about to happen)
- a key question is how much energy do we, as individuals, need to fuel our lifestyle? This is about us using smart technology and making choices.
- there is an urgent need to look at the regulatory environment which is creating many roadblocks to progress such as planning restrictions
- Stagecoach have coverted some buses in Kilmarnock to run on waste oil such as chip fat. Custom has increased, and some travellers are bringing bottles of old chip oil to pay for their journey!

The Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security included senior representatives from Virgin, Solarcentury, Stagecoach, Scottish and Southern Energy, Yahoo, Arup, Foster and Partners and First.

Report at www.peakoiltaskforce.net

A few ideas occurred to me during this presentation. I don't think there is much to be gained by trying to analyse exactly when Peak Oil will occur. The question is when will the symptoms associated with Peak Oil start to have an impact and the answer is that that is already happening. Symptoms include erratic prices as confidence evaporates and pricing oil becomes more difficult, oil producing countries starting to conserve supplies for themselves, significant investment moving to renewables and alternative energy supplies, increasing interest in the subject in all areas.

I would like to see a mega plan put together identify all the projects/changes that need to happen and what the timescales and dependacies are for each of these. From that we could draw a huge plan identifying the critical path and what changes need to happen to unblock sections of the plan (like implementing feed-in tarrifs, smart metering and DR).

No Demand Response, no progress

Interesting day yesterday attending a meeting of the DR (Demand Response) group in Dublin. Jerry Sweeny has talked in detail on his blog about the importance of getting Demand Response in Ireland in order to be significantly increase the amount of wind on the grid.

What became clear to me at this meeting, was that without DR it is going to be hard to make progress on a number of fronts in reducing our dependance on imported energy.

Wind is great if it blows at times of high demand but is a problem if it blows when demand is low. On the grid supply must equal demand and while supply can be increased or decreased by bringing power stations on line, demand is more difficult. When supply is predictable, the high tarriffs for periods of high demand and low tarriffs for periods of low demand help to reduce the peaks and fill in the toughs. But when supply is unpredictable, such as wind or wave, there is currently no way of increase or decreasing demand in real time. This will lead to the situation where wind farms have to be turned off if there is not enough demand.

But if we could make electricity behave more like the financial markets by decreasing the price when supply was plentiful (summer nights) and increasing the price when supply was tight (cold windless evenings) then we could start choosing when to buy electricity depending on price. We all have electricity loads that we can't move. Shops need the lights on when the shop is open, the dinner needs to be cooked before dinner time. But there are also loads we can moved, chilling of food in the supermarket and the time we run the dishwasher.

But having real time pricing is just the first step, the next part of the puzzle is to respond to price changes and this has to be automated in order to move substantial loads.

Real time pricing requires the electricity suppliers to supply a price, for that price to be delivered to the customer and for meter readings to be supplied at short intervals so that the customer is charged the correct amount, we need smart meters. Smart meters come in many flavours but all are currently costly - estimated prices for european installation are over €200. For a householder to want to install a smart meter, it must deliver them a saving, so without real-time pricing and DR, the smart meter delivers no benefit for the customer.

Once we have real time pricing, smart meters and DR, the next step is net metering. This creates the opportunity for arbitrage of electricity - you buy the electricity when it's cheap, store it and sell it when the price goes up again. Now the grid could take substantial amounts of wind with market traders ready to suck up any bargains.

Another long term solution to making use of plentiful wind is to build high capacity interconnectors to UK, making it possible to sell electricity to the highest bidders in Europe. But this also depends on having DR across Europe in order for there to be customers able to take maximum advantage of our wind.

It seems to me that DR is a prerequisite for increasing intermittant renewables and for making most efficient use of electricity thereby decreasing carbon emissions. As these items are high on the governments agenda, why is there so little awareness of, let alone committment to, DR?

Idea for Codesprint/Barcamp Cork - Meeting Carbon Count

This mashup would offer the following functionality:

- calculate carbon emissions for each person attending a meeting (travel) plus overheads (heating, lighting etc).

- offer option to offset some or all of the carbon

- offer car pooling by collecting peoples travel plans ahead of time

Using this system would have the added benefit of finding out who intends coming to the meeting - this idea came up at a poorly attended meeting where the room had been booked for larger numbers.

Functionality and Potential sources:

- carbon calculator api - www.amee.cc

- meeting organisation - upcoming

- calendars - google

- car pooling - drijo

Potential Market

- NGOs

- Any group holding meetings that include travel and want to reduce their carbon footprint

Energy Demand - Just because we want it, doesn't mean we are going to get it!

Listening to a podcast on the solution to the energy problem (nuclear in the case), I was increasingly frustrated by the fundamental assumptions the speaker was making about the future that are dubious if not plain wrong. So at a future date I am going to do a blog on all the assumptions, often unstated, that are being made in the energy area. These include, oil production will continue to increase (Internation Energy Outlook for 2008 EIA), mix of energy types (liquid/gas/electric) will remain about the same, energy production will continue to be largely centralised, no new technology that can significantly effect supply or demand, the future will continue the trends of the past and for this post, energy demand will continue to grow at current rates.

(Note that graph does not seem to match with text in EIA report:

Total non-OECD energy demand increases by 85 percent in the IEO2008 reference case projection, as compared with an increase of 19 percent in OECD energy use. The robust growth in demand among the non-OECD nations is largely the result of strong projected economic growth. In all the non-OECD regions combined, economic activity—as measured by GDP in purchasing power parity terms—increases by 5.2 percent per year on average, as compared with an average of 2.3 percent per year for the OECD countries.)

For energy demand to continue to increase at this rate, the assumptions underlying this are:

• demand = consumption
• consumption is met by energy producers
• increasing demand/consumption requires additional energy generation capacity

The first assumption under this heading, is that energy demand equals energy consumption. In the past the market has been able to match demand by increasing production. The whole point about peak oil is that production cannot be further increased and therefore there may be a demand there, but it cannot necessarily be met.

The second assumption is that there will continue to be a centralised model of energy supply. Large power stations or windfarms put electricity onto the grid and the consumer takes electricity from the grid. Large oil companies supply liquid fuels to filling stations. Gas companies move gas along pipelines to point of use. Distributed power generation is increasing with small generation also feeding into the grid, but micro-generation can bypass the grid altogether, feeding direct to an appliance or into a buildings supply. Farmers are growing their own biodiesel and having it processed locally. It is therefore possible for energy consumption to increase but for demand for energy from suppliers to decrease.

For our lifetimes, energy has been cheap. So cheap that we can afford to waste it. Electricity suppliers have been forced to meet our demands to use as much energy as we want whenever we want. This leads to huge peaks and troughs in demand both an a daily, weekly and seasonal basis, and sudden peaks such as the end of a the World Cup Football when all the kettles go on. Variable pricing and smart metering is starting to be introduced and the effect of this will be to allow us to make use of energy when it is cheap (and plentiful) and defer use when it is expensive. We can run our washing machines when it is windy and cheap, rather than waiting to run out of clean clothes. Businesses can top up their refrigerator plant on windy nights and shut them down quickly in the case of sudden peaks of electricity demand. Petrol has been so cheap that we can afford to lose 80% of it's energy in heat and friction in the combustion engines that drive our cars, electric cars are inherently more efficient, even including losses from electricity generation (see http://pbjots.blogspot.com/2008/07/electric-vs-combustion-engine.html).


We have an insatiable appetite for cheap energy and my long term view is that we will work out how to harness the abundant energy that surrounds us. In the future we will be able to generated energy when we want it and where we want it. Each machine will create its own energy and maybe our homes will be their own mini-grid. The national grids will become a phase in history and energy demand and energy consumption will only be of interest to academics who must estimate our usage.

But I do not expect to see that in my lifetime! In developed countries, in the short term, I expect to see the need for large scale additional energy production decline because:

1. Production from power plants will be used more efficiently. With smart metering, variable pricing, intelligent homes and demand response we can flatten the peaks and use up the troughs.
2. The price of energy is reaching a tipping point where it is eating into peoples disposable income. People will be actively looking for ways to reduce their energy use by reducing waste and using costly energy more efficiently - sales of SUVs are falling, more is being spent on home insulation etc.
3. Innovation around energy use in products will significantly increase their efficiency. It has not been cost effective until now to spend significant money on R&D in this area. Once product designers start looking at the way products use energy as a whole, rather than just increasing efficiency of existing technology, significant gains can be made. The promise of nanotechnology is to create minute motors that use far less energy and increase the efficiency of energy generation. This might mean shaking a laptop once an hour to generate enough energy to run it!
4. Micro generation is becoming affordable, reducing demand from the grid.
5. Repair rather than Replace. As it becomes more expensive to make disposable products because of the increase in price of energy to make and distribute products and the increasing price of feedstock (plastic is made largely from oil), companies will move towards designing products for repair. This is already happening as insurance companies seek to repair instead of replace on claims. Repairs, especially with development of small scale fabrication equipment mean components can be manufactured locally, and this will require less energy.

(I have to say I am not 100% convinced of my own argument that we won't need additional large scale generation plant - but I want to throw it out there just to challenge assumptions that are being made.)

Developing countries have the opportunity to avoid our wasteful mistakes but also have different challenges:

• increasing population - fertility rates in developed countires are generally less than replacement, which is about 2.33 but depends on the country. See league table here and article in wikipedia
• need to address poverty - increasing standard of living for the poor requires more energy.

So while some of the factors for developed counties hold true, energy consumption will certainly increase if economic conditions allow. However, some of this consumption could be from locally produced supply.

China's consumption of energy is growing rapidly and 70% of it from Coal. World energy production will be heavily influenced by what happens in China. It is not clear to me what proportion of China's energy is used in producing goods for export, which will suffer a downturn should energy production and transport costs become high enough to make local production cheaper. eg. foods and other perishables. If there is also a move to repair rather than replace, what will this do to energy consumption? There is an overview of China and energy here: http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/274 and I would be interested to hear from anyone with more information.



There is one final assumption - that the world economy will continue to grow. Just because it has done during our lifetimes, does not make economic growth inevitable. If we have a world recession, there is a whole different scenario, but shhhhh, don't say anything because if you do, it might happen.

Open Coffee BBQ

Lots of people turned up to the BBQ at Lough Derg from all over the country, from wedding planners to deep techies to hot poster sellers (more later).

I did a talk on the opportunities for the IT sector caused by energy problems. (I belive in calling a problem a problem and not an issue!). Here is an abbreviated version:



The industry most used to change, who welcome change as an opportunity for innovation and who expect to get new businesses and new products to market at short notice is, in my opinion, the IT sector. So maybe IT people are the ones to embrace the changes caused by a changing energy landscape and to benefit by it.

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A bit about me.

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The problem is the gap between increasing demand and declining supply of fossil-fuels.

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Our 20th century economy was built on the assumption of cheap and available energy, in particular oil and globalisation has been possible because of cheap transport costs. If energy prices continue to increase then what changes will that mean for the way we live and work?

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Current thinking is around how to increase supply to meet demand, but doing something about demand is actually much easier and cheaper. Demand is made up of the energy we need plus the energy we want plus the energy we waste. I have been saying for some time that we waste at least 50% of the energy we use but am open to challenge! Wasted energy is any energy used that does not give us a direct benefit, so it includes burning petrol at traffic lights as well as leaving the lights on in an empty room

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So what kind of changes lie ahead as demand pushes against supply?
Smart grids, smart meters and demand response will mean the price of electricity will vary with the cost of supply. On windy days the price is cheaper than when all the electricty is supplied by gas and peat. Electricity suppliers will use price to manage demand and reduce peaks and fill troughs. This will make more efficient use of generation plant.

I don't believe in the hydrogen economy (see previous blog posts). Electricity seems a much better carrier of energy for which we already have the basic infrastructure. We are already replacing oil with electricity when we purchase ground source heat pumps and electric cars are already to be seen on the roads.

In the forseeable, future energy efficiency will be a given. This is not to say that we will be constantly trying to save energy. If we have our own wind turbine or solar panel, then that energy is effectively free to use, when it is available. On windy summer nights, the grid will be tring to offload excess wind so it will be very cheap.

As transport prices increase, some aspects of globalisation will be unsustainable. Deglobalisation is already happening in the US where it is cheaper to carry out some work in the US than move goods round the world. At the same time, work that does not involve 'stuff' can be increasingly by done anywhere.

Just in time is ubiquitous so we rarely consider alternatives. Chemist shops in Dublin have two deliveries a day and people shop for food every 2 to 3 days because of the short shelf life of food and lack of storage space in the kitchen. As the price of transport goes up, it will become more economical is some cases, to store more and have fewer, larger deliveries, which in turn effects the transport fleet...

And while we have never had a world recession, doesn't mean we can't.

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So what are the opportunities?

Moving stuff and people around the place has been very cheap for a long time. Imagine that before travelling up to the BBQ we could checkout www.saveonmyjourney.com and find that by picking up a package in Dunmanway and dropping it off in Mallow I could save €8 on my journey. For a few extra minutes, I'd do that.

How about a taxi/bus type service where you tell a system where you need to be and when, and each day the system does a timetable that devises the most efficient routes and sends an appropriate sized vehicle to cover that route. A job no human could do, but perfect for a computer.

FabLabs put small fabrication into the hands of everyone. We can all become inventors and fixers. I want one! More here.

Demand response allows the grid controllers to not only manage supply to manage demand. They have two controls. One is to increase price when they want to decrease demand, the other is to have control of equipment, which by prior agreement, they can shut down at time of high demand. Here is more about how the US have implemented Demand Response and Jerry Sweeney who wants to make it happen here.
Publish Post
Those are only a few ideas - Think about all the things that can be done under the heading "Taking the Hassle out of Energy Efficiency".



The Hot Posters? Stand next to an ordinary poster only you realise it is giving off heat! They do this by giving off infra-red light. Handy for the winter when you want to watch TV in a cold room - sit by a pic of your favorite politician (hot air). In the bus shelter, everyone is huddled around the poster for whisky. Build into the jackets for farmers and horsey people out in the wind, rain and mud all winter. In my wellies and gloves. Under my feet when sitting at the computer in the winter......

More on the Electric Vehicle Theme

Two items today on this theme:

A great article at this new blog Next Generation of Energy Ideas on electric cars and how the future is going to be hybrid electric plugins and the commenters make some good points, including the idea of utility companies owning the batteries and leasing them to car owners, and the idea of standardising on batteries to we can hot swap them.

An taking the opposite view, Boone Pickens youtube video on how the US can replace the power stations that are using imported natural gas with windmills and use the natural gas in cars instead (because cars must run on liquid fuels).  I think he needs to consider the big picture of electricity supply and the need to balance wind with quick start (gas) fueled power stations and also the electric car concept.  But nevertheless, great to see a businessman with a vision and sharing it with us. 

Future Cities and more Hydrogen

Watched a fun presentation on the kinds of technology we might find in a future city, from folding cars to desalination plant. Part of the infrastructure was algae producing hydrogen which was sent down pipelines to supply transport vehicles, cooling cables on the way. I have the feeling, and I may well be wrong, that we assuming hydrogen will be part of the future mix and are looking for solutions.

Supposing the best use of algae was to create hydrogen, would it not be more energy efficient to convert directly to electricity and put the electricity on the grid than creating an additional infrastructure for hydrogen, not to mention more complex engines? I would be very interested to see the capital costs and running costs of hydrogen vs. electric cars. Given that hydrogen cars are electric cars with the addition of a fuel cell and hydrogen storage, it must be considerably more?

Do your bit - Thanks Greenav

Electric vs. Combustion Engine Efficiency

Today I'm trying to get to grips with future vehicles and wade through all the bad information out there. So starting with Electric cars vs. petrol/diesel. The combustion engine car is inherently inefficient, mainly because of the heat losses of the combustion process, but also losses through the drivetrain and additional load such as air conditioning. Out of town, efficiency improves with 20% reaching the types.




The overall efficiency of the electric car depends most signficantly on the source of electricity. If you electric car is recharged from your own windmill, the efficiency can be as much as 80%, but if power station losses and grid losses are also included that may drop to as much as 28%. Still better than the petrol car though.

Electric-Powered GM EV1	Gasoline-Powered Acura .2TL

Start with	1 million BTUs	Start with	>1 million BTUs
Energy left after generation (39% efficiency)	390,000 BTUs	Energy left after refining (92% efficiency)	920,000 BTUs
Energy left after charging losses (88% efficiency)	>343,000 BTUs	Energy left after transport (95% efficiency)	874,000 BTUs
BTUs per kilowatt-hour	3412 BTUs	BTUs per gallon of gasoline	115,400 BTUs
Electricity available	100.6 kWhr	Gallons available	7.6 gallons
Energy efficiency	0.19 kWhr/mile	Fuel economy>	24 mpg
Miles per million BTUs	529.5 miles	Miles per million BTUs	182.5 miles
Equivalent mpg	69 mpg	Equivalent mpg	24 mpg

From http://www.electroauto.com/info/pollmyth.shtml a bit out of date


This would suggest, even with current technology, that you are greener to buy an electric car and charge it off the grid then drive an equivalent petrol car.



Here is a more entertaining comparison of electric vs. petrol. Mythbusters converted a petrol go-kart to electric and it performed almost as well as the petrol one, which considering it was nearly twice as heavy with the batteries, wasn't bad going.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/home_journal/workshop/4264026.html?page=2

Model for directing funding to energy projects

Larger businesses may find projects aimed at reducing energy use within a department are hampered by having to find the funding from within existing budgets. Harvard have a loan fund to get around this limitation:

What is the Green Campus Loan Fund?
The Green Campus Loan Fund provides capital for high performance campus design, operations, maintenance and occupant behavior projects. Basic project eligibility guidelines state that projects must reduce the University’s environmental impacts and have a payback period of 5-10 years or less. The model is simple: GCLF provides the up-front capital. Applicant departments agree to repay the fund via savings achieved by project-related reductions in utility consumption, waste removal or operating costs. This formula allows departments to upgrade the efficiency, comfort, and functionality of their facilities without incurring any capital costs.

http://www.greencampus.harvard.edu/gclf/

Washing Machines in 2017

I found myself trying to explain how different I thought things might be in the future, not Business as Usual, but what? For some reason I heard myself say "So take washing machines..." Having thought about it since, it's not such a bad example. So here is my text for an advert for a Washing Machine Upgrade in 2017. I am assuming an Enlightened Transition type scenario (no major economic shock and proactive moves to replace fossil-fuels. See http://info.energyscenariosireland.com/Enlightened_Transition)


Everwash 2.0 Software Upgrade
- works with all our models
- includes API upgrade
- interface with home networks
- works with energy saving controllers version 1.0 and above
- new cycle for cold wash for use with Coolwash detergent.
- Include wash cycle for latest Gucci range of nanofibre range.
Upgrade cost €50 for machines over 3 years old.

Everwash washing machines available in 3 sizes
Every part can be replaced with parts available from local repair shop within 24 hours.
Running costs lowest on the market.
Lease cost €99/year with buy-back option after 10 years.
10% discount when you signup to our power package.


Explanation

It is now expensive to make machines, so they are designed to be repaired quickly and cheaply using parts which can be made locally by a local fab shop. Designs for all parts are held online and are downloadable directly to the fab machine for a cost per download.

Rather than upgrading the machinery, companies make money by providing a servicing/leasing option and software upgrades. As most appliances are now supplied on a service basis, this gives the company every incentive to make the machine long lasting, easy to repair and easy to recycle.

The need to drive down the cost per wash has challenged fabric manufacturers and detergent company to come up with longer lasting fabrics that can be washed a low temperatures. These washes require special wash cycles. The software has been opened up to allow amateur washing machine hackers who now carry out much of the development of new code for the company. Where this custom software is used in new releases, the programmers get one of payments of €1000.

Washing machines can now link into the home intranet and be controlled from any computer or internet device (such as a phone) linked into the home network.

Appliances can now be controlled by power companies, where there are agreements with the household. This allows the power company to quickly dump load on unexpected peaks and to schedule non-urgent services, such as a machine wash, for low usage times. The appliance has an interface to allow the user to specify the urgency of the wash and/or the maximum they are prepared to pay for the wash.

Inspiration

Fab Labs - http://fab.cba.mit.edu/
Change from selling product to services - The Natural Step and Interface Carpets
Smart Metering and Energy Demand Management
The rise of the Amateur Professional - Charles Leadbetter Ted Talk

Zeri Systems Design

Currently looking at options energy generation for a farmer in North Cork who also has a plant hire business and was reminded of the elegant solutions from Zeri where every waste product is used producing zero waste overall.

Made some notes here: http://www.vividlogic.ie/zeri.html

Cork Environmental Forum Plenary on Sustainable Economics

Last night, June 3rd 2008, CEF had a couple of great talks from David Korowicz and Emer O'Siochru on why our current economic model is unsustainable and what might replace it. In particular how we might manage that transition given increasing energy prices and the challenge of climate change.

Cap and Share is a method for equably sharing out the common right to emit carbon. Basically permits are issued to everyone equally and we then sell them, via a bank or post office, to the companies that import fossil fuels. Ireland is currently giving serious consideration to trialling Cap and Share for transport (Ireland has the highest km/capita of anywhere in Europe and is higher than the US!) and the rest of the world is looking on with interest. So much for "what can I do, I'm just one person" or in this case "what we we do, we're just a small country?". After the plastic bag tax and the smoking ban, is this another chance for us to lead?

You can watch the recording of the streaming feed here:http://www.present.ie/cefonline/EA51DA8185/



A professional video version (including the first few minutes!) will be available later plus the slides from the presentations - keep an eye here http://www.cef.ieor add yourself to the mailing list on the home page.

New technology for an energy efficient world

Amazing what er can do if want to!  A couple of items that came to my attention today:

Fluorescent paper that glows for 12 years - http://www.physorg.com/news116776284.html

Wind up camera - http://www.engadget.com/2007/12/13/sonys-odo-twirl-n-take-a-wind-up-camera-concept/

Energy efficient server from Dell is referred to in this google tech talk, which is a lot more interesting than the title might suggest - Electricity use and efficiency of servers and data center - about implementing energy efficiency changes and the likely increase in energy demand from large scale computing.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOJoB38OxK0&sdig=1

Some good press for China

I know very little about China but one of the often repeated statistics is that China opens a new coal fired power station every week. But how many are they closing and more importantly, what is their overall energy policy?

Here is some good press for China: http://www.sightline.org/daily_score/archive/2007/11/16/china-climate-scapegoat

1 Cow = 1 SUV

I knew cattle and sheep were responsible for a significant part of our greenhouse gas emissions but I was reminded of how much when I watched Countryfile today. Cows and sheep produce methane as part of their digestive process of which most comes out of the front end as a burp rather than the back end. Methane is 20 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, so astonishingly, the emissions from one cow is equal to running an SUV for the year!

There is work being done to see if by changing the diet of these animals, using additives such as garlic and changing the varieties of grass, we can reduce emissions, an scientist of hopeful of up to 30% reductions.

One large cattle/milk farmer spent £85,000 on a digester 17 years ago and it now heats two homes, including an rayburn and the energy used on the farm.

It's hard enough to suggest we should drive our cars less, to even think we should reduce the cows in our green fields seems almost sacrilegious.

Submission to the Draft Dunmanway Integrated Development Startegy

Spent most of my spare time this week putting together a submission for my local town's development plan. As with many development plans there is much good stuff int it, but they are based on the assumption that today's trends will continue tomorrow and with so many challenges facing us - energy, climate change, decreasing resources of all kinds and now a fading property boom, I think that is a very risky assumption.

If you agree that tomorrow is likely to be much more energy constrained, this opens a wide range of opportunities for towns ready to grab them:

• Build a combined heat and power plant for the town providing cheaper heat and electricity and making it an attractive town for both residents and business.


• Develop as a centre for repair and remanufacture of goods - the trend towards repairs is already starting with companies like claimtracker in the UK


• Become a centre for low energy holidays such as walking and cycling with a range of quality resteraunts and other activies in the town.


• Develop a biogas plant to turn sewerage from a cost into a resource


• Install micro-hydro plants in the local rivers and stream


• Develop as a centre for small businesses who want to do work remotely by providing high quality video conferencing facilities that small groups could not currently afford.


• Build the first FabLab in Ireland and stimulate innovation and entrepreneurship in the town.

Read all 18 pages here: